IN THE MIDDLE
NOTIGRUPO’S ENGLISH EDITORIAL
– The Senate, 2018 election icing on the cake
– Elections in San Luis, two way or threeway race?
After two weeks, we’re back and not quite in the middle, more like at the end of August… we are about to start the football season and the Major Leagues are going into their final weeks before playoffs. Mexico is a soccer football nation, but several other sports are liked and practiced at pretty good level and football is a popular spectator sport, so you can watch it in local, dish and cable TV.
Anyway, besides sports, September is an important month in Mexico: obviously, Mexican Independence Day (September 16th), but also, it turns out the 2018 election formally starts on the first day of the month… sounds confusing, but, let me explain:
As in several countries, the Mexican political system, works on several levels and tiers, so, while we have a National Electoral Institute, charged with the general organization of elections in all of Mexico, there are also subsidiary local electoral organisms, as would correspond to a Federal Republic… so we have a federal election which will elect the national president and federal Congress in its two chambers: 128 Senators and 500 Federal Deputies; at the same time, several states will also have local elections, and change state congresses (the number of deputies varies), and city authorities or Municipal Presidents and city councils or Cabildos.
That’s the case of San Luis Potosi, which will change both federal and state congressmen and municipal authorities. That means 58 mayors or Municipal Presidents; 27 local Deputies; seven Federal Deputies; and the three Senators that will change (for this legislature, there’s no reelection) for a 6 year term. The current senators are two from National Action Party (PAN), senior senator Sonia Mendoza (who was also that party’s candidate for Governor two years ago); and junior senator Octavio Pedroza (city mayor 12 years ago); the third senator is from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), ex governor Teofilo Torres Corzo.
Since there isn’t a governor’s election, the Senate is the icing on the cake for the major parties, and the power balance seems on the verge of changing, with a previously unexpected political force emerging as dominant in the supposedly conservative San Luis Potosi Metro area, represented by the current San Luis Potosi mayor, Ricardo Gallardo Juarez and his son, Ricardo gallardo Cardona, ex mayor of the conurbated municipality of Soledad, and who are both part of left of center Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), but are ‘de facto’ leaders of an extremely strong political movement called «Gallardismo».
Their decision, on what they will politically run for, is still the great question and one which will define many other things: will Mayor Gallardo run for reelection and his son for the Senate?; will he run for the Senate and his son stay on the sidelines?… if either one of them is candidate for city mayor, they’ll win with a clear and ample margin… if neither one of them runs, and PAN or PRI can find a good candidate, the PRD might lose San Luis Potosi city, their undoubted bulwark in the race towards the governorship in 2021.
Another sudden and unexpected factor, was Marcelo De los Santos, ex governor from the PAN party, (actually the ONLY governor from a non PRI administration this state has had in 80 years), declaring his intention to run for the Senate… he is the only real heavyweight political figure the PAN has now, that could guarantee a seat in the higher chamber of the Mexican Congress.
And if you add the possibility of a national alliance between PAN and PRD, things get awfully complicated, because, also, by law, candidacy’s have to be absolutely gender equal, which means that if one of the Senate candidates is male, the second candidate MUST BE FEMALE (and the other way around…); so if there were such an Alliance and Marcelo were to be candidate, the other candidate would have to be a woman from the PRD, narrowing even more the different options both parties would have.
The PRI, on the other hand, after pulling a bizarre and almost miraculous comeback in the governor’s election in 2015, is facing several drawbacks: national president Enrique Peña Nieto is probably the most unpopular president EVER!; almost every PRI governor ending his term, is immediately prosecuted for astounding corruption; here in San Luis Potosi, governor Carreras just can’t seem to get it together, specially in security matters, Potosinos are really nervous about rampant insecurity all over the state; and there do not seem to be any worthwhile figures to cover the most relevant candidacies.
Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, the PRI could turn to local Finance Secretary, Jose Luis Ugalde and ex federal police commisioner, Enrique Galindo, and give the other parties a run for their money… but even then, it really looks bleak.
Anyway, each party will have its primaries or decide on their selection process… and that’s what oficially starts this September… pretty simple after all, right?
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